Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2506 LANDED 10:47 PM PT, ~6 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2506 · PHL → SFO

took off 8:26 PM ET · landed 10:47 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2506 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time