Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2522 LANDED 11:12 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2522 · DFW → SFO

took off 9:59 PM CT · landed 11:12 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2522 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time