AA 2523 · MCO → PHL

departs 5:37 PM ET · arrives 8:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2523 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?