Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2727 LANDED 11:40 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2727 · LGA → RDU

took off 10:31 AM ET · landed 11:40 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2727 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time