Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2788 LANDED 10:53 AM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2788 · BOS → PHL

took off 9:49 AM ET · landed 10:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2788 · BOS → PHL

Odds over time