Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2879 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:38 PM PT, ETA 5:41 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2879 · MRY → DFW

took off 12:38 PM PT · expected to land 5:41 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2879 · MRY → DFW

Odds over time