Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3118 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 3118 · MCO → DFW

departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3118 · MCO → DFW

Odds over time