Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3124 LANDED 2:22 PM MT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 3124 · SAN → PHX

took off 1:29 PM PT · landed 2:22 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3124 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time