Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3128 LANDED 2:59 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3128 · ORD → LGA

took off 12:18 PM CT · landed 2:59 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3128 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time