Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3238 LANDED 10:55 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3238 · ORD → RSW

took off 7:33 PM CT · landed 10:55 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3238 · ORD → RSW

Odds over time