Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 464 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:28 PM MT, ETA 8:06 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 464 · PHX → SMF

took off 6:28 PM MT · expected to land 8:06 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 464 · PHX → SMF

Odds over time