Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 539 LANDED 9:05 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 539 · TPA → LGA

took off 6:54 AM ET · landed 9:05 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 539 · TPA → LGA

Odds over time