Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 540 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:24 PM PT, ETA 4:32 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 540 · GEG → PHX

took off 2:24 PM PT · expected to land 4:32 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ GEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 540 · GEG → PHX

Odds over time