Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 540 LANDED 1:18 PM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 540 · PHX → GEG

took off 11:06 AM MT · landed 1:18 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ GEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

GEG (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 540 · PHX → GEG

Odds over time