Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 811 LANDED 4:20 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 811 · DEN → PHL

took off 11:13 AM MT · landed 4:20 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 811 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time