Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 869 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:48 PM CT, ETA 7:50 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 869 · MKE → DFW

took off 5:48 PM CT · expected to land 7:50 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 869 · MKE → DFW

Odds over time