Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 95 LANDED 11:53 AM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 95 · MAD → JFK

took off 10:42 AM CEST · landed 11:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 17h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 95 · MAD → JFK

Odds over time