Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1096 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AS 1096 · HNL → OGG

departs 11:44 AM HT · arrives 12:28 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

OGG (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1096 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?