AS 1173 · HNL → LIH

took off 9:33 PM HT · landed 9:52 PM HT (scheduled 9:18 PM HT → 9:59 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to LIH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

LIH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1173 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late did it get to LIH?