AS 1198 · HNL → KOA

took off 9:18 PM HT · landed 9:47 PM HT (scheduled 9:09 PM HT → 10:02 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to KOA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1198 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late did it get to KOA?