Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1382 LANDED 12:26 AM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 1382 · SEA → GEG

took off 11:50 PM PT · landed 12:26 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

GEG (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1382 · SEA → GEG

Odds over time