Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1411 LANDED 9:59 AM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 1411 · SFO → PDX

took off 8:36 AM PT · landed 9:59 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1411 · SFO → PDX

Odds over time