Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AS 1415 · FAI → ANC

departs 1:34 PM AKT · arrives 2:41 PM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at FAI that day

↑ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

ANC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1415 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?