Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1417 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1417 · HNL → SLC

departs 11:10 AM HT · arrives 9:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SLC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1417 · HNL → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?