AS 1422 · DEN → SAN

took off 1:47 PM MT · expected to land 2:49 PM PT (scheduled 1:43 PM MT → 3:07 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1422 · DEN → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?