Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1438 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1438 · SEA → ANC

departs 7:21 PM PT · arrives 9:37 PM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ANC is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

ANC (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1438 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time