Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1475 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1475 · SEA → SNA

departs 3:59 PM PT · arrives 5:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1475 · SEA → SNA

Odds over time