Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1574 LANDED 9:36 AM PT, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 1574 · IAD → SEA

took off 7:41 AM ET · landed 9:36 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1574 · IAD → SEA

Odds over time