Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1613 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 1613 · JNU → ANC

departs 6:59 PM AKDT · arrives 8:48 PM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 6pm departures from JNU are usually not late

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

ANC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1613 · JNU → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?