Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1703 LANDED 11:41 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 1703 · BOI → SNA

took off 11:00 AM MT · landed 11:41 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1703 · BOI → SNA

Odds over time