AS 181 · FCO → SEA

took off 3:48 PM CEST · expected to land 5:14 PM PT (scheduled 3:15 PM CEST → 5:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCO

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FCO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 181 · FCO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?