Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 19 LANDED 12:41 PM PT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 19 · JFK → PDX

took off 10:11 AM ET · landed 12:41 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 19 · JFK → PDX

Odds over time