AS 214 · SEA → BOS

departs 11:05 PM PT · arrives 7:10 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 214 · SEA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?