Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 221 LANDED 1:15 PM PT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 221 · ANC → SEA

took off 9:19 AM AKT · landed 1:15 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ 9am departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 221 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time