AS 238 · SEA → KOA

departs 3:59 PM PT · arrives 7:05 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

KOA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 238 · SEA → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?