Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 256 LANDED 2:16 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 256 · BOS → SAN

took off 11:43 AM ET · landed 2:16 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

SAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 256 · BOS → SAN

Odds over time