Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 26 LANDED 5:54 PM ET, ~25 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 26 · SEA → JFK

took off 10:04 AM PT · landed 5:54 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 26 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time