Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 295 LANDED 4:53 PM ET, ~23 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 295 · SEA → EWR

took off 9:22 AM PT · landed 4:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 295 · SEA → EWR

Odds over time