Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 301 LANDED 7:46 PM PT, ~44 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 301 · MCO → PDX

took off 5:23 PM ET · landed 7:46 PM PT (scheduled 5:29 PM ET → 8:34 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PDX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 301 · MCO → PDX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PDX?