Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 34 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:58 PM PT, ETA 9:30 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 34 · SEA → JFK

took off 1:58 PM PT · expected to land 9:30 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 34 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time