AS 394 · FAT → SEA

departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 6:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 394 · FAT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?