Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 451 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:26 AM PT, ETA 6:10 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 451 · SEA → CVG

took off 11:26 AM PT · expected to land 6:10 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

CVG (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 451 · SEA → CVG

Odds over time