Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 462 · EWR → SEA

departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 462 · EWR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?