Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 469 · BNA → SEA

departs 6:03 PM CT · arrives 9:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 469 · BNA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?