Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 496 · SEA → LAX

departs 7:18 PM PT · arrives 10:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 496 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?