Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 504 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:37 PM PT, ETA 12:19 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 504 · SEA → BNA

took off 6:37 PM PT · expected to land 12:19 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

BNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 504 · SEA → BNA

Odds over time