Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 520 LANDED 4:58 PM PT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 520 · SFO → LAX

took off 3:59 PM PT · landed 4:58 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 520 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time