Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 523 LANDED 3:17 PM MT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 523 · SNA → BOI

took off 12:26 PM PT · landed 3:17 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from SNA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 523 · SNA → BOI

Odds over time