Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 531 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:10 PM PT, ETA 7:51 PM PT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 531 · PDX → LAS

took off 6:10 PM PT · expected to land 7:51 PM PT (scheduled 5:50 PM PT → 8:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 531 · PDX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?