Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 536 LANDED 4:56 PM PT, ~23 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 536 · OAK → SEA

took off 3:12 PM PT · landed 4:56 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±1 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 536 · OAK → SEA

Odds over time